asteroid earth
Cody Medina
Cody Medina
October 10, 2023 ·  4 min read

NASA: Asteroid Could Still Hit Earth in 2068

The Apophis asteroid has been a well-known force by astronomers since 2004. For years, science has speculated that this skyscraper-sized asteroid could hit the earth. However, our planet has managed to elude this drifting assassin ever since its discovery. However, it has been taunting us with every passing year that goes by. It was previously thought that Apophis could hit us in the year 2029; however, this is not the case. You may be wondering, how truly devastating would this impact be if it were actually to hit us?

Apophis The Wanderer

Space Center CAPE CANAVERAL, FLORIDA. Kennedy memorial next to the Nasa globe.
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Newly gathered research presented by the University of Hawaii and NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory shows us that Apophis has the potential to hit Earth in 2068. Luckily, with the help of modern technology, the probability of a hit is considered to be very low. However, Apophis isn’t the only deadly force in space that we are worried about. Asteroids 101955 Bennu and 29075 (1950 DA) are also possible threats, so we are constantly looking out. It takes a lot of thorough observation to predict what might happen.

Projections of Risk

Back view of people working and managing flight in mission control center. Elements of this image furnished by NASA.
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To give you an idea, the information and data go into NASA’s Sentry Risk Table. You can view all of the projections of risk that revolve around outside forces including asteroids like Apophis. As you can see, Apophis has a 1 in 150,000 chance of hitting the Earth. What makes this probability shift is based on a cause and effect that occurs in the asteroid. As it hurtles through space endlessly, it gathers energy from the sun, which is then radiated back into space as heat. However, the energy is disproportionate on the surface of the asteroid. As the heat is projected from certain sides, the orbit of the asteroid slightly changes. This is known as the Yarkovsky effect.

A More Accurate Measurement

Japan's Subaru Telescope in the snow at the summit of the Mauna Kea volcano on the Big Island of Hawaii, United States
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Davide Farnocchia from NASA, in collaboration with Dave Tholen from the University of Hawaii, has been considering this effect. Using data gathered with the Subaru Telescope, they were able to conclude a new projection. Claiming that Apophis has a 1 in 530,000 chance of crashing into the earth. Even with these new projections, it’s still a doubtful situation that Apophis will collide with us. Having said that, it isn’t to say that we shouldn’t try to prepare ourselves for a cataclysmic event such as this.

Extinction Of Life As We Know It?

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In the event that Apophis somehow crashes into us, it wouldn’t necessarily mean the complete extinction of life as we know it. However, it would be by far one of the most devastating impacts life on earth could suffer. If an asteroid like Apophis landed in our oceans, the magnitude would ripple outward and destroy everything in its path. Carving out large swaths of landmass. Neil DeGrasse Tyson explains it perfectly in this video below.

50-Foot Tsunami

Photo manipulation about a tsunami going to hit a big city
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If it were to hit the Pacific Ocean, the asteroid would create a 50-foot tsunami that would destroy the entire west coast of North America. In addition to the sheer amount of destruction, clean food, water, and other necessities would become scarce. As Tyson explains, there could potentially be no deaths at all, and could actually be something you could watch. This is assuming we have ample time to prepare for the impact. This would mean a massive evacuation.

The Future For Apophis And Us

Huge asteroid hits the planet Earth. Elements of this image furnished by NASA.
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These are all hypotheticals and still leave a lot to the imagination. However, with the right technology and math, science allows us to predict the course of asteroids. Of course, it is still entirely uncertain as to when and how or even if an asteroid like Apophis is going to hit us. There may only be a few moments for you to be able to react to any kind of catastrophic event like this. If observers keep track of and measure all of the potential threats in space, this gives us a fighting chance.

Space Can Be Very Unpredictable

Astronaut at spacewalk. Cosmic art, science fiction wallpaper. Beauty of deep space. Billions of galaxies in the universe. Elements of this image furnished by NASA
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Space can be very unpredictable as it changes its fate on a daily basis. In the grand scheme of things, we are actually pretty lucky that something like this hasn’t happened in a long time. Hopefully, by the year 2068, mankind will have made even more technological breakthroughs. The more we are able to understand the mysteries that lie in space, the more we are prepared to deal with whatever comes our way. The ultimate dream is to be able to reach beyond the stars and find the grey areas that are in between. What’s even more worrisome is the unpredictability that black holes give.

Threats That Exist Beyond Our Planet

Meteor shower destroying city on earth. Elements of this image furnished by NASA
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There are many threats that exist beyond our planet and even our solar system. It is up to us to be able to commune with the outside forces and heed the information that is given to us. It’s truly hard to know or even predict when catastrophe will find us again. It’s going to be even harder being ready for that kind of devastation.

Keep Reading: Earth Is Spinning So Fast Scientists Might Delete Time From The Day

References

  1. Asteroid Apophis Could Still Hit Earth in 2068, New Measurements Suggest.” Gizmodo. George Dvorsky. October 27, 2020.
  2. Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring.” CNEOS.
  3. Neil deGrasse Tyson: Asteroids, Apophis and Extinction.” Youtube. Star Talk. April 25, 2013.
  4. What Are Black Holes?NASA. September 8, 2020.